SELECTION OF THE BEST B-SPLINE REGRESSION MODEL FOR ESTIMATING BITCOIN PRICE INCREASES BASED ON ORDER AND OPTIMAL KNOT POINT

Mohammad Dandi Faridza

doi:10.47194/orics.v4i3.248

Authors

Mohammad Dandi Faridza
mohammad.dandi6957@student.unri.ac.id
Program Studi S1 Statistika Jurusan Matematika Fakultas Matematika dan Ilmu Pengetahuan Alam Universitas Riau Kampus Bina Widya, Pekanbaru 28293

Keywords:

Bitcoin, cryptocurrency, nonparametric, b-spline, generalized cross validation.

Abstract

The cryptographic virtual currency, bitcoin, is considered the main originator of cryptocurrencies that emerged due United States financial crisis in 2008. The idea was sparked by Nakamoto by introducing an alternative currency system that really refers to the strength of supply and demand. Based on INDODAX data, the bitcoin exchange rate during October 2020 to February 2021 is a condition of a large increase in a short time with a percentage increase of 450%. The increase in bitcoin prices can be modelled using the b-spline nonparametric regression method based on order and optimal knot points based on the smallest Generalized Cross Validation value. The resulting b-spline 4 degree and the number of knots points 5 as the best model with each bases described recursively.

References

Bhiantara, I. B. P. (2018). Teknologi blockchain cryptocurrency di era revolusi digital. Universitas Pendidikan Ganesha, 173â€“177.

Botella, O., & Shariff, K. (2003). B-spline methods in fluid dynamics. International Journal of Computational Fluid Dynamics, 17(2), 133â€“149.

Budiantara, I. N., Suryadi, F., Otok, B. W., & Guritno, S. (2006). Pemodelan b-spline dan mars pada nilai ujian masuk terhadap IPK mahasiswa Jurusan Disain Komunikasi Visual UK. Petra Surabaya. Jurnal Teknik Industri, Universitas Kristen Petra, 8(1), 1-13.

Dung, V. T., & Tjahjowidodo, T. (2017). A direct method to solve optimal knots of Bspline curves: An application for non-uniform b-spline curves fitting. Plos One, 12(3), 1â€“24.

Eubank, R. L. (1999). Nonparametric Regression and Spline Smoothing. Florida: CRC Press.

Indodax. (2021). Bitcoin Market. https://indodax.com/market/BTCIDR. Diakses 22 Februari 2021 Pk. 20.30 WIB.

Nakamoto, S. (2008). Re: Bitcoin P2P e-cash Paper. https://users.encs.concordia.ca/. Diakses 25 Maret 2021 Pk. 20.00 WIB.

Rinaldi, D. A., & Huda, M. K. (2016). Bitcoin sebagai alat pembayaran online dalam perdagangan internasional. Prespektif Hukum, 16(1), 122â€“138.

Sovbetov, Y. (2018). Factors influencing cryptocurrency prices: evidence from bitcoin, ethereum, dash, litcoin, and monero. Journal of Economics and Financial Analysis, 2(2), 1â€“27.

Suwasono, B., Widjaja, S., Zubaydi, A., Yuliadi, Z., & Budiantara, I. N. (2010). Pengembangan parameter teknologi terhadap prediksi spline kubik. Makara, 14(2), 121â€“127.

Wong, W. (2014). Bitcoin : Panduan Praktis Memahami, Menambang, dan Mendapatkan Bitcoin. Bogor: Indraprasta Media.

Yuniartika, Y., Kusnandar, D., & Mara, M. N. (2013). Penentuan generalized cross validation (gcv) sebagai kriteria dalam pemilihan model regresi b-spline terbaik. Buletin Ilmiah Mat. Stat. Dan Terapannya (Bimaster), 02(2), 121â€“126.