Food Sector Stock Investment Portfolio Optimization using Mean-Expected Shortfall Model with Particle Swarm Optimization

Abstract

One of the most promising investment products is stocks. Stocks have great profit potential, but the risks associated with this investment should not be ignored by investors. Therefore, an optimal investment strategy is needed by forming an investment portfolio, in order to minimize risk and maximize profits that can be obtained. This study aims to optimize the investment portfolio. The method used in this research is based on the Mean-Expected Shortfall (Mean-ES) model. The use of this method is expected that investors can get a more accurate picture of the level of risk associated with their stock portfolio. In addition, Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) can also be used to optimize the allocation of funds in a stock portfolio.  Applying PSO, investors can find the optimal combination of fund allocation to achieve a high level of return. Based on the results of the analysis conducted on the following five stocks AALI, BISI, DSNG, LSIP and SMAR, the results show a risk level of 0.0014 and a return level of 0.021%.  Thus, investors can form a stock portfolio that has a high potential return, while minimizing the risks associated with stock investment. The implementation of this optimal investment strategy can assist investors in achieving their financial goals in a more effective manner.  Considering the potential returns and risks involved, investors can make wiser investment decisions and optimize the performance of their stock portfolio.