Dynamic Simulation Model of Garlic Availability in Bali Using iThink Software

Muhamad  Hafizi; Syauqi Abyan Hafiz; Bambang Sugiharto; Eneng Tita Tosida; Kotim Subandi; Victor Ilyas Sugara

doi:10.47194/orics.v6i1.368

Authors

Muhamad Hafizi
muhamadhafizi@gmail.com
Syauqi Abyan Hafiz
Bambang Sugiharto
Eneng Tita Tosida
Kotim Subandi
Victor Ilyas Sugara

Abstract

Fluctuations in local production, increasing demand, and dependence on garlic supplies from outside the island make it difficult for Bali Province to maintain a stable garlic supply. iThink software is used to model the dynamic garlic availability system in this study. This simulation method involves creating a Causal Loop Diagram (CLD), creating a mathematical model based on differential equations, and conducting table and graphical analysis of the simulation results. The simulation results show that the linear increase in garlic demand of 6,289.08 tons per year can be offset by local production increasing to 31,071.73 in 2024 and an off-island supply of 4,176 tons per year. The projection of garlic availability until 2024 is 122,895.71 tons. The results show that maintaining a stable supply of off-island garlic is the main way to ensure sustainable garlic availability in Bali.

References

Adila, JZ, Adhi, AK, & Nurmalina, R. (2023). Indonesian Garlic Supply and Demand Model. Agribusiness Forum, 13(2), 218-228

BPS West Java Province. (2021). Harvested Area of Vegetable Crops by Regency/City (Hectares), 2017-2019

Directorate General of Horticulture. (2022). Policy Support for Local Garlic Development

Dudin, Muhamad Dika Ima, Agung Suryawan Wiranatha, Cokorda Anom Bayu Sadyasmara. (2020).Simulation of Dynamic System Model of Garlic (Allium sativum, L.) Availability in Bali Province. Journal of Agro-Industrial Engineering and Management. 8, 114-126.

Garside, Kesy, A & Asjari, Yusuf, H. (2015). Simulation of Rice Availability in East Java. Scientific Journal of Industrial Engineering.

Hajar, Granita. (2020). Dynamic Simulation Model to Increase the Availability of Eggs and Chicken Meat in East Java. Masters thesis, Sepuluh Nopember Institute of Technology.

Hakim, Lukman, et al. (2023). Dynamic modeling of cassava availability system in Aceh Besar district. Scientific Journal of the Faculty of Agriculture, Yudharta University of Pasuruan.

Khaledi, Hamed. (2015). A Generic System Dynamics Model of Firm Internal Processes. System Dynamics Model for Firms.

Khorsidi, HA, I. Gunawan, & MY Ibrahim. (2015). System dynamics modeling for multi-state systems: Application of weighted k-out-of-n modeling. Safety and Reliability of Complex Engineered Systems.

Krisdayanti, NKL., Satriawan, IK., and Yoga, IWGS. (2017). Dynamic System of Soybean Availability in the Framework of Food Self-Sufficiency in Bali Province. Journal of Agro-Industry Engineering and Management. 5(3): 45-56.

Londhe, VP, Gavasane AT, Nipate SS, Bandawane DD, Chaudhari PD. (2011). Role of garlic (Allium sativum) in Various Diseases: An Overview. Journal of Pharmaceutical Research and Opinion, 4(1):129- 134.

Oetomo, Dedy Setyo, et al. (2024). Simulation Model of Soybean Raw Material Inventory for Tofu Industry in Purwakarta Regency Using Dynamic System (Case Study: Tofu Factory “X”). Journal of Economics, Management and Business.

Omar, SH, & Al-Wabel, NA. (2016). Organosulfur compounds and possible mechanisms of garlic in cancer. Saudi Pharmaceutical Journal, 18(1), 51-58.

Permatasari, Nindy. (2022). Development Of Simulation Model With System Dynamics To Increase The Value Of The Palm Oil Industry Supply Chain (Case Study On The Riau Palm Oil Industry). Sepuluh Nopember Institute of Technology.

Rachmawati and Fitria, L. (2016). Dynamic System Model Engineering of Corn Commodity to Support Special Effort Program in West Java, Bogor Agricultural University, Bogor.

Ried, K., Toben, C., & Fakler, P. (2016). Effect of garlic on serum lipids: An updated meta-analysis. Nutrition Reviews, 74(11), 698–716.

Shang, A., Cao, SY, Xu, XY, Gan, RY, Tang, GY, Corke, H., ... & Li, HB. (2019). Bioactive compounds and biological functions of garlic (Allium sativum L.). Foods, 8(7), 246.

SK Lab Team 2022. (2022). STELLA Module 4 Major Assignment - Analysis of Garlic Availability in Bali (Group 99). [Video]. YouTube

Surya, A., et al. (2018). Analysis of broiler chicken meat availability in Bali. Journal of Agribusiness and Animal Husbandry.

Yulastari, E., et al. (2018). Dynamic System for Beef Availability Analysis in Bali. Journal of Animal Husbandry and Food Security.

Zhang, Y., Liu, Z., Wang, X., & Guo, L. (2018). Data-driven supply chain management in agriculture: Improving garlic supply chains in China. Computers and Electronics in Agriculture, 151, 62–69.